نگاهی به هفته پیش رو: انتخابات، تصمیمات نرخ بهره و اشتغال در کانون توجه

Next week’s calendar gives traders plenty to work with. US congressional elections bring political uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are expected to raise rates, and Friday delivers employment reports from both the US and Canada.

The central question is whether growth, inflation and employment support a more restrictive policy outlook. For traders, the releases will provide the catalysts. The technical levels will help define the bias, risk and targets as those headlines hit.

The week starts with US manufacturing before attention shifts to Australia late in the North American evening.

10:00 AM ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Forecast: 54.7 – Previous: 54.5.

10:30 PM ET – RBA cash rate decision – Forecast: 4.85% – Previous: 4.60%.

10:30 PM ET – RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement.

The manufacturing index is expected to edge higher, remaining above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. Traders will also watch prices paid, new orders and employment for clues about inflation pressure and the durability of growth.

For the AUDUSD, the calendar points to a 25-basis-point RBA hike. The reaction will depend on the guidance as well as the decision. Does the central bank leave the door open to additional tightening, or suggest policy is approaching a sufficient level?

Tuesday, November 3: US elections, job openings and New Zealand employment

US congressional elections dominate the political calendar, while JOLTS provides another reading on labor demand.

2:30 AM ET – Swiss CPI, monthly – Forecast: 0.0% – Previous: 0.0%.

10:00 AM ET – US JOLTS job openings – Forecast: 7.11 million – Previous: 7.08 million.

4:45 PM ET – New Zealand employment change, quarterly – Forecast: 0.4% – Previous: 0.5%.

4:45 PM ET – New Zealand unemployment rate – Forecast: 5.5% – Previous: 5.6%.

Tuesday’s elections will determine control of the House and Senate—and how much room President Trump has to advance his legislative agenda during the second half of his term.

Senate: Key contests to watch include Georgia, North Carolina, Maine and Michigan. Georgia’s seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff and Maine’s seat held by Republican Susan Collins are central battlegrounds. Open-seat contests in North Carolina and Michigan also give both parties important opportunities. New Hampshire’s open seat is another race worth watching.

House: Control could come down to a relatively small number of competitive districts, particularly in California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. Suburban voters and districts with closely divided presidential results will be especially important.

For markets: Republican control of both chambers would give the administration more room to pursue tax, spending and regulatory legislation. Democratic control of either chamber would create divided government, increasing the need for negotiation over budgets and major legislation. Investors will watch the implications for Treasury borrowing, energy, healthcare and corporate taxes.

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of both chambers.

In the House, Republicans emerged with a 220–215 majority. A net Democratic gain of three seats would shift that balance to 218–217, giving Democrats a narrow majority.

In the Senate, Republicans held a 53–47 advantage. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a 51–49 majority. Gaining only three would leave the chamber split 50–50, with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote keeping Republicans in control.

The key word is net: each seat a party loses must be offset by another pickup. For markets, a Democratic takeover of either chamber would bring divided government, making major tax and spending legislation more dependent on negotiations.

New Zealand’s report is expected to show slightly slower employment growth alongside a lower unemployment rate. Wages and participation will help explain whether that combination reflects a firmer labor market.

Inflation in Europe and activity in the larger US services sector move into focus.

5:00 AM ET – Eurozone core CPI flash estimate, annual – Forecast: 2.5% – Previous: 2.5%.

5:00 AM ET – Eurozone headline CPI flash estimate, annual – Forecast: 4.0% – Previous: 3.8%.

10:00 AM ET – US ISM Services PMI – Forecast: 54.9 – Previous: 54.9.

The expected rise in headline eurozone inflation would complicate the policy picture, even with core inflation holding steady.

In the US, an unchanged services reading would signal continued expansion. The details matter: stronger prices paid alongside softer employment could produce a very different market reaction than broad strength across new orders, business activity and hiring.

The Bank of England headlines a busy session that also includes US claims, several central bank speakers and Canada’s annual budget.

7:00 AM ET – BOE bank rate decision – Forecast: 4.00% – Previous: 3.75%.

7:00 AM ET – BOE MPC vote split, hike–hold–cut – Forecast: 7–0–2 – Previous: 3–0–6.

8:30 AM ET – US initial unemployment claims – Forecast: 197,000 – Previous: 194,000.

The supplied calendar points to a 25-basis-point BOE hike, with a sharp change in the expected voting balance. Sterling traders will watch whether the inflation forecasts and Bailey’s comments reinforce the need for further tightening.

Canada’s budget adds a fiscal catalyst for the CAD, with spending, borrowing and growth assumptions likely to attract attention ahead of Friday’s employment report.

Friday brings the week’s biggest scheduled data test, with both employment reports arriving at 8:30 AM ET.

8:30 AM ET – US nonfarm payrolls – Forecast: +63,000 – Previous: +29,000.

8:30 AM ET – US unemployment rate – Forecast: 4.2% – Previous: 4.2%.

8:30 AM ET – US average hourly earnings, monthly – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.1%.

8:30 AM ET – Canada employment change – Forecast: +14,500 – Previous: −68,300.

8:30 AM ET – Canada unemployment rate – Forecast: 6.5% – Previous: 6.5%.

10:00 AM ET – Canada Ivey PMI – Forecast: 57.7 – Previous: 58.2.

10:00 AM ET – Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment – Forecast: 47.8 – Previous: 48.0.

10:00 AM ET – Preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations – Forecast: Not listed – Previous: 4.7%.

All day – New Zealand parliamentary elections, as listed on the supplied calendar.

US payroll growth is expected to improve but remain modest, while wage growth is forecast to accelerate. Soft hiring alongside firmer wages would leave traders weighing slower growth against persistent inflation pressure. Payroll revisions will also matter.

Canada is expected to recover only part of the previous employment decline. With both reports released simultaneously, the USDCAD could see a sharp initial reaction as traders compare the relative strength of the two economies.

There are several opportunities for expectations to shift during the week. A rate hike can support a currency, but the follow-through will depend on what comes next. Stronger employment can lift yields, while the wage details may change how investors interpret the same report.

Watch the first move, then watch whether the price can hold its break. A sustained break shifts the bias. A failed break puts the other side back in play. With elections, central banks and jobs competing for attention, clearly defined risk will be especially valuable.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.