صلح جهانی

World Peace By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

Wall Street traders walked into the office yesterday morning to see headlines that world peace was just beyond the horizon, as Turkish, Saudi, Qatari, and Pakistani officials wrapped up meetings in Tehran to try and bring an end to the war. And so, the headlines rocked that “ Iran’s Supreme Leader Calls for Meeting Conditions to End War.” Markets priced in the likelihood of the war actually ending accordingly- given that conversations about nuclear never even made it to the table- with brent crude oil one-month futures down about $2 to $114/bbl.

Only a few blocks away, the Israeli elections were in full swing, with the voter turnout nearing the highest level since 1975, as reported by the FT . Turnout was especially strong among voters in Arab-Israeli towns who “by the late afternoon had already surpassed their full vote tally for the entire 2022 election cycle.” The results, at the time of writing, appear neck and neck, but the odds are skewed in Netanyahu’s favor. Even if the Likud party fails to win a majority, and Eisenkot’s Yashur party comes into power, the likelihood of Eisenkot to create a coalition to go against the right-wing is limited. Therefore, should Eisenkot fail to achieve a coalition majority, Netanyahu remains in power until another round of elections are held in a few months.

Meanwhile, Europe fails to stay unified in its dealings with Russia amidst the Russia-Ukraine war. Leaders from Finland and Norway spoke with Putin for the first time in over a year, with Finnish President Stubb calling the conversation “frank and substantive.” According to Bloomberg , a Kremlin read out of the call notes that Putin “emphasized that achieving a just and long-term peace is possible only if the legitimate interests of the Russian Federation are fully and unconditionally taken into account.” But other countries were less-than-pleased with this unfolding of events, with leaders from Denmark and Italy criticizing the move. Frederiksen said that she “sees no signs that Russia desires peace with Europe- neither in the hybrid warfare taking place every single day, nor in Ukraine, where they are launching fierce and aggressive attacks on a daily basis.” Especially as the Danish Intelligence Agency recently published a report warning Europe about the acceleration of time and scope of Russian hybrid attacks.

So, some headlines suggest world peace may be just beyond the horizon—but the view from here remains obstructed.

Talks in Tehran have produced conditions rather than an agreement, Israel’s election may reinforce the status quo, and Europe still can’t agree, even on a phone call. Are we on the verge of world peace, or a world in pieces?