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In the European session, the only highlight was the UK GDP report which beat expectations across the board, keeping a rate hike in December firmly on the table. The monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September, beating expectations of no growth. The services sector led the expansion, while industrial and manufacturing output also outperformed forecasts, despite downward revisions to August figures.

Overall, the economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q3, matching preliminary estimates, with 9 of 14 services subsectors recording growth. The data points to stronger than expected economic momentum heading into the final quarter of 2026. Traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a rate hike in December, with a total of 87 bps of tightening expected by the end of 2027.

In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 195K vs 189K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1710K vs 1718K prior. The US labour market has been gradually strengthening throughout the year and might have tightened enough to start putting upward pressure on wage growth.

Nevertheless, the data today is unlikely to be market-moving because strong figures are already expected. We will likely need a very big miss or beat to trigger a reaction. As a reminder, a rate hike in December is already fully expected after Fed's Waller hawkish remarks, but traders started to debate on the size of the hike after Waller put a 50 bps hike on the table and the US CPI came in higher than expected. At the moment, the probability for a 50 bps hike is at 12%.

19:30 GMT/14:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.