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In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index which is expected at 98.2 vs 97.9 prior. This is never a market-moving release and it won't change anything for the Fed.

The focus remains on the US-Iran developments given the significant effect the war has on the global growth outlook. The risk sentiment improved yesterday after a couple of positive headlines renewed hopes for a deal, although nothing concrete has been reached yet.

In the American session, we get the monthly US CPI data. We won't get the year-over-year figures because of the government shutdown last year. The focus will be on the Core M/M measure which is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3% prior.

The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a rate hike in December. Given the totality of the US data, the Fed should be hiking. I don't see the data changing much at this point, although a very soft CPI could bring the probabilities for a hike lower.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.