مدعیان اولیه بیکاری هفتگی ایالات متحده ۲۰۰ هزار در برابر ۱۹۵ هزار مورد پیش‌بینی شده

The US Department of Labor publishes its weekly unemployment insurance claims report every Thursday at 8:30 am ET, or Wednesday when a holiday falls later in the week. It’s the most timely official read on the US labor market, covering the week that ended just five days earlier.

The headline figure is initial jobless claims, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s a direct gauge of layoffs. Because the weekly data are noisy, markets also watch the four-week moving average to gauge the trend.

The report also includes continuing claims, the number of people still receiving benefits after their initial filing, which lags initial claims by a week. While initial claims track layoffs, continuing claims show how hard it is for people out of work to find new jobs. A steady rise in continuing claims alongside low initial claims has often signaled a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market where workers aren’t being let go but are struggling to get rehired.

Claims tend to get extra attention during the week that includes the 12th of the month, which is the survey reference week for the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, giving an early hint at the jobs data.

Seasonal adjustment is a persistent challenge. Holidays, summer auto plant retooling, school calendars, hurricanes and strikes can distort the numbers, as can surges in fraudulent filings in individual states. The report includes unadjusted state-level data and separate figures for federal employees, which can matter during government layoffs or shutdowns.

Because claims are released weekly and few other labor indicators are as current, a sustained break higher is one of the clearest early warning signs of a weakening economy.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.