بازار منتظر سیگنال‌های دونالد ترامپ است

I spoke to Reuters earlier today about the state of markets and my comments boiled down to this:

"There are two ​paths Trump can go down - he can double down on unpopular trade ​wars or he can listen to the electorate and change course," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive. That's the crossroads we are at right now and I think it shows some of the tension in markets.

Of course, Trump has said that many times before replacing staff, so I wouldn't take it as the final word. It's worth noting though that George H. W. Bush fired Donald Rumsfeld the day after the 2006 midterms, in large part due to the unpopular Iran war.

Trump did also tease at Hegseth taking the Tennessee Senate seat after its senator won the Governorship, soemthing he could in January.

Alternatively, House member Thomas Massie has pledge to start impeach Hegseth, and there's ample evidence that they could get the votes to do it, either before or after the new Congress is sworn in. Many Senators will be looking to reframe their anti-war, America First chops and Hegseth is a convenient scapegoat.

At the same time, there is a big distinction in how he's removed. If it's from Trump, it will be a sign that he's sick of the Iran war and will end it. If it's Congress, that still leaves a pro-war President in power.

In terms of the timeline, earlier NYT reporting about three aircraft carriers in the Gulf was incorrect. The USS Roosevelt will arrive in the Gulf in mid-November and that could be the window for strikes. There is talk the USS George Washington needs to depart the area soon so there is only a short overlap.

There is a similar dynamic unfolding around tariffs. Congress has lost patience with USMCA tariffs and perhaps some others. Expect some action on that either in the lame duck session or early next year.

Again, Trump has the option of cutting a deal beforehand and there's talk deals are close with Canada and Mexico. If he does that, it could bring down the temperature but Congress may still want to go further and repeal some tariffs to show they're fighting to bring down the cost of living.

One thing that worries me is that Trump reposted this message:

If he decides to double down on his worst instincts, it will keep inflation high, make the Fed's job harder and likely lead the market to price in even more Democrat gains in 2028.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.