ثبات شانس افزایش نرخ بهره با هدایت مواد غذایی و هوش مصنوعی و افزایش تورم تولیدکننده به بالاترین سطح ۴ سال اخیر

Rate-Hike Odds Steady As Food & AI Lift Producer Price Inflation To 4 Year High After the hotter-than-expected CPI earlier in the week , wholesale inflation was expected to accelerate at a slower pace in October (relative to the +1.3% MoM surge in September).

Headline Producer Prices printed just slightly cooler than expected (+0.3% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp), lifting PPI up 6.5% YoY (from 6.3% YoY in September). That is the highest YoY print since Nov 2022

On a MoM basis Energy actually deflated (but is accelerating YoY)...

...but arguably that is 'peaking' this month , given the rapid decline in crude prices in the last month...

Core PPI (Ex-Food and Energy) rose 0.3% MoM as expected and up 5.0% YoY...

Goods prices rose at a faster pace than Services costs but both rose in October (for the 3rd straight month)...

And AI is also having a sizable effect with the recent rapid surge in memory prices has stabilized (but is not dropping)...

Soaring Memory Prices To Push Core PCE 0.5% Higher As Fed Issues Red Alert On Soaring Chip Costs https://t.co/hBFVcRgFAZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 10, 2026 And the pipeline for further inflationary pressure remains with Intermediate Demand soaring...

As we noted here, the PPP-CPI spread continues to signal margin pressure is coming for American companies...

Finally, and most importantly, rate-hike expectations remain high with December still pricing in a 15% chance of a 50bps hike...