Midterms strip out the war premium, but the next two months make shorts a risky bet

Crude futures have just posted their sharpest sell-off since 2020. Brent fell 16.6% between the 30 October peak and 4 November. On that day the January contract settled at $94.62/bbl after an $8.98/bbl drop. The trigger was the Democrats’ sweep of both chambers of Congress, which the market read as raising pressure on Washington to ...