تورم اکتبر آلمان کاهش می‌یابد، اما ریسک‌های انرژی زمستانی، گمانه‌زنی‌ها درباره افزایش نرخ بهره ECB را زنده نگه می‌دارد

The final report here pretty much confirms what we already seen with the preliminary report from earlier. The easing in price pressures in Europe's largest economy owed much to a slower increase in energy prices in October, as well as the introduction of temporary fuel tax cuts starting 1 October (scheduled to run through the end of the year). That being said, all measures of underlying inflation also fell with services and goods prices also dropping on the month.

"The main reason for the continued high inflation rate remained the development of energy prices, even though the fuel discount, which was reintroduced at the beginning of October, likely dampened inflation somewhat."

The more crucial estimate, that being core annual inflation, is reaffirmed at 2.1% in October - marking a drop from 2.4% in September. So, that will offer some comfort to the ECB that price pressures are not exactly surging all across the region towards the final quarter of the year.

Having said that, do be reminded that we are approaching the start of the winter season. And combined with low gas storage levels, that is also likely to push up gas prices in the coming weeks. In turn, that could possibly translate into higher retail/consumer prices at the start of next year.

For now though, the inflation data will help to give ECB doves some added comfort as the numbers show that there are still no second-round effects in sight. But while the data may suggest that a December rate hike is not a done deal just yet, the stronger inflation pressures elsewhere are likely to tip the scales in the favour of another move by year-end. And market odds are reaffirming that, with a roughly 79% probability being priced in for a 25 bps rate hike in December currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.