شاخص PMI کارخانه‌های خصوصی چین با رسیدن به ۵۲.۰ فراتر از پیش‌بینی‌ها; رشد تولید سریع‌تر از آوریل

The beat offers some relief after Saturday’s weak official survey and may give modest support to China-sensitive assets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial metals at the start of the week. The price detail is less encouraging. Falling output and export charges driven by fierce competition point to continued disinflationary pressure from Chinese factories, which global markets could feel through cheaper goods exports. The gap between the export-tilted private survey and the broader official index also complicates Beijing’s stimulus calculations: it suggests pockets of strength in investment goods and exports even as wider activity softens. Confidence at a nine-month low is a reminder that the solid headline may not last if margins keep being squeezed.

--- China’s export-focused manufacturers had a better October than the official data suggested, producing more and selling more, but only by cutting prices to win business in an increasingly crowded market.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, was 52.0 in October against 52.1 in September, above the 51.6 consensus

It was the 11th straight month above 50, the longest run of improvement since mid-2021

Output grew at the fastest rate since April, led by investment goods, and new orders rose solidly for a 17th month, though export order growth slowed to a three-month low

Output prices fell for the second time in three months and export charges dropped for the first time in nearly a year, as firms cited intense competition

Input cost inflation eased, purchasing rose at the fastest pace since February, and supplier delivery times shortened

Business confidence fell to a nine-month low on worries about input costs and competition

China’s private-sector manufacturing gauge held firmly in expansion in October, offering a brighter view of the country’s factories than official data released at the weekend, though firms had to cut prices to keep orders flowing.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, was 52.0, little changed from 52.1 in September and above the 51.6 median forecast in a Reuters poll. It was the 11th straight month above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, the longest such run since mid-2021. The data were released at 0145 GMT on Monday (2045 US Eastern on Sunday).

The result contrasts with Saturday’s official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics, which slipped into contraction at 49.3. The RatingDog survey covers around 650 manufacturers and leans more toward export-oriented firms than the official poll, which samples more than 3,000 companies.

Output grew at the fastest pace in six months, with growth spread across consumer, intermediate and investment goods, and strongest among investment goods makers. Total new orders rose for a 17th consecutive month at a solid pace, helped by new product launches, improved production capabilities and firms’ own sales efforts. New export orders increased for a fourth month, with firms citing more work from clients in Asia, Europe and Africa, but growth eased to a three-month low.

Prices were the weak spot. Output charges fell for the second time in three months as intense competition pushed firms to discount, and export prices declined for the first time in nearly a year. Input costs kept rising, driven by metals and fuel, but at a slower pace than in September and below the year-to-date average.

Firms stepped up purchasing at the fastest rate since February and built up input stocks at the strongest pace in five months. Supplier delivery times shortened for the first time in eight months. Hiring rose only marginally, leaving backlogs of work to keep building at a steady pace.

Despite the solid activity, business confidence fell to a nine-month low, with some firms worried about elevated input prices and rising competition. RatingDog said cost pressures, price competition and subdued confidence warranted attention, though it expects the manufacturing PMI to remain in expansion in the near term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.