تراز تجاری کانادا (دلار کانادا) برای ماه سپتامبر +۵.۳۵ میلیارد در برابر پیش‌بینی +۴.۱ میلیارد

The details of the Canada Trade Balance for the month of September:

Merchandise trade balance: C$5.4 billion surplus. Prior C$4.95 billion surplus 9revised from C$4.20B.

Exports: +0.2% MoM to C$78.6 billion vs C$78.41B prior. Prior +3.2%.

Imports: -0.3% MoM to C$73.71 Billion vs C$73.46B. Prior -2.2%.

Trade surplus with the United States: C$12.3 billion. Prior C$12.1 billion.

August exports revised to C$78.4 billion from C$77.9 billion; imports revised to C$73.5 billion from C$73.7 billion.

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened to C$5.4 billion in September from C$5.0 billion in August, according to Statistics Canada. Exports edged higher while imports declined, but the details were mixed. Oil and gold supported the headline export gain, while export volumes fell sharply.

Energy exports rose 8.2%, led by crude oil and bitumen, up 10.2%, largely because of higher prices. Metal and non-metallic mineral exports increased 8.6%, supported by gold. However, eight of 11 export categories declined. Excluding energy and metal and non-metallic mineral products, exports fell 5.6%.

On the import side, motor vehicles and parts fell 9.1%, following a 9.3% decline in August. That weakness was partly offset by a 29.4% jump in computer and peripheral imports, mainly reflecting processing units used in data centres coming from the United States.

Quick analysis: The surplus improved, but the export details take some shine off the headline. Higher commodity prices helped lift export receipts while volumes declined. Third-quarter export volumes also fell 0.6%, with import volumes down 1.6%. That gives the Bank of Canada a softer underlying activity signal than the nominal surplus alone suggests. A wider surplus would normally support the Canadian dollar and pressure USDCAD lower, but the broad export weakness could temper that support.

What this report measures: Canada’s monthly merchandise trade report tracks goods exported to and imported from other countries. A surplus means goods exports exceed imports. Traders watch both dollar values and inflation-adjusted volumes because higher prices can lift trade values without an increase in the quantity of goods shipped.

Source: Statistics Canada, November 4, 2026; international merchandise trade table .

The USDCAD is trading near session lows helped by the general trend to the downside in the greenback post the US election . Technically, the price has extended below the swing area between 1.3936 up to 1.3963. It also fell below the 61.8% retracement at 1.39497. The swing area is now a close risk area for traders. Stay below is more bearish. On the downside the 200 day MA at 1.38919 is the next key target to aspire toward. Move bwow that MA would ad to the bearish bias.

On a break above teh 1.3963 level, we could see sellers shift back to buyers and look toward teh 50% retracement at 1.40162. Late yesterday, the price moved up to test that level only to find willing sellers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.